‘Swell’ of cases coming if Delta spreads

Hamilton’s COVID numbers on steep decline but new variant ‘poses a significant unknown risk’

Hamilton’s COVID-19 numbers are now lower than before the third wave started.

The important milestone comes as forecasting shows the Delta variant — also known as B.1.617.2 — could cause cases to spike again in July.

“The delta variant poses a significant unknown risk to our future as there is a great deal of uncertainty around what we might expect,” epidemiologist Ruth Sanderson told the city’s board of health Monday. “This increase in the Delta variant and transmissibility may result in a swell of cases in July and move us from our current positive downward case trajectory.”

Most recent numbers

The city reported 11 infections Monday, bringing active cases to 225.

A more reliable marker is the average daily new cases at 24 on June 12 and the weekly rate per 100,000 population at 28. Both are at their lowest since Oct. 30.

It’s significant because case numbers never went fully back down before the third wave started Feb. 17 so the goal is to get numbers closer to before the second wave started Sept. 1.

Hamilton has also seen ongoing outbreaks drop significantly to 10 on Monday compared to 40 about a month ago. No new outbreaks have been declared since June 10.

Forecasting

Under the worst-case scenario, Delta will be the dominant strain by the end of July, accounting for 92 per cent of Hamilton’s COVID infections. Scarsin Forecasting predicts it would result in a swell of 1,518 cases, 89 hospitalizations and 20 deaths between June 14 and July 31.

The best case sees the variant, first identified in India, become dominant by the end of August, making up 78 per cent of infections. This scenario would see 465 cases, 27 hospitalizations and 16 deaths.

The difference is significant at 1,053 infections, 62 hospital admissions and four deaths.

Delta cases are predicted to be driven by those age 20 to 59, with over 60 per cent of infections forecast to be that age.

Scarsin correctly predicted Hamilton would have between 170 and 180 cases a day at the peak of the third wave.

Where Hamilton stands

Despite steep declines, Hamilton still has one of the highest case rates in Ontario.

The cases per million population in the last seven days is fourth behind public health units Porcupine, Region of Waterloo and Peel. Brant is fifth.

However, Hamilton’s rate has fallen by 41 per cent to 369, as calculated by Ahmed Al-Jaishi, an epidemiologist with Ontario research institute ICES Western.

Hamilton’s test positivity also remains stubbornly high at 5.3 per cent Monday. It was the third-highest rate in the province — behind Porcupine and Peel — for the week of May 30.

Public health and infectious disease experts have struggled to pinpoint why Hamilton’s test positivity isn’t following the province’s downward trend to 2.8 per cent.

Who is getting COVID?

Nearly 46 per cent of Hamilton’s COVID cases identify as racialized despite making up 19 per cent of the population.

Nearly 25 per cent of cases live in low income despite these households accounting for 19 per cent of the population.

Racialized COVID-19 cases were three times more likely to live in low-income households.

Vaccination

Hamilton continues to lag behind the province when it comes to vaccination despite a change in how the rate is calculated that gave the numbers a small boost.

About 71 per cent of adults have received a first dose compared to the province’s 74 per cent.

Nearly 12 per cent have had a second shot — Ontario is nearly 15 per cent.

Hamilton is now basing its rates off population predictions for 2020 instead of 2021, which is in line with the province and boosted the city’s rate by about two per cent.

Hamilton was left off the list of Delta hot spots getting faster second jabs. Medical officer of health Dr. Elizabeth Richardson hasn’t seen the data the province used to determine the seven hot spots, which includes Halton, but she called the decision “reasonable.”

Pfizer is vastly outpacing other vaccines in Hamilton accounting for 290,794 doses compared to 65,465 for Moderna and 37,135 for AstraZeneca.

How bad was the third wave

The third wave had more cases than the first two waves combined. Wave one had 979 infections, wave two saw 8,921 infections, while wave three has had 11,083 and counting.

It also saw the most severe illness with 677 hospitalized compared to 619 in wave two and 146 in wave one.

As of Monday there were 44 COVID patients in Hamilton hospitals, including 25 in the intensive care unit.

Due to vaccination in seniors homes, wave three had fewer deaths at 120 compared to 231 in the second wave. The first wave had 45 deaths.